Arkansas has not won an SEC game since early 2012 against Kentucky. It has not really been their fault this year considering their 5 opponents are Auburn, A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Miss State. Arkansas played MIss State and Alabama in similar fashion to what LSU did. Actually they played better than LSU did against Miss State. I just think this is the perfect spot for Arkansas to finally get their first SEC win. They come off a bye, and LSU comes off a very physical game at home that went to OT against their biggest rival in Alabama. This is a hang over spot for LSU or they will just be more banged up than a fresh Arkansas team that is hungry to finally win a conference game and get back into the possibility of going to a bowl game.
This LSU team is built on the running game much like Arkansas so I took a look at what each team did in conference play and at home and away and Arkansas comes back with more balance and the better run defense. If LSU was capable of passing the ball this could be a different story, but Anthony Jennings has a 120 QB rating and is completing less than 50% of his passes. Jennings shocked Arkansas last year at home with a 49 yard TD pass with 1:15 to play to capture a 31-27 victory over Arkansas. Arkansas has been close to an SEC win numerous times and now they get a true home game. LSU is making just its 3rd true road game and the numbers aren't good.
LSU rushing offense in conference games is averaging 4.14 ypc and they are backed by a very good and veteran offensive line, but on the road just 3.45 yards per carry. LSU comes to the line and makes a lot of checks which is a big reason why they will struggle on the road. They also are not blessed with a balanced attack so the defense knows what is coming. Arkansas ont he other hand has Brandon Allen who is more efficient and complete nearly 60% of his passes 15 TD and 5 INT. He's got a next level TE in Hunter Henry making plays each and every game. Arkansas rushing offense has been slightly better in conference play 4.29 ypc, but 5.77 at home.
LSU's rushing defense has been hit or miss 4.71 ypc in conference play they allowed 150 more yards against Miss State than Arkansas did. Arkansas has played well against physical running teams holding both Miss State and Alabama in check. Their defense has allowed 4.64 ypc in conference play (less than LSU) and 3.25 at home. Arkansas also finally faces an SEC team that can't pass the ball. All 5 opponents had QB's with passer ratings above 150 which is just insane when you consider all 5 can also run the ball. Arkansas should be able to play defense with the extra prep and do their thing on offense to dominate time of possession. Their defense has held opponents to 30% conversions on third down at home while LSU has only converted 28% of theirs on the road. In the end it will be Brandon Allen will be the reason why Arkansas comes away with a win on a very very cold night.
